Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 91811.703533 96820.476640 101824.085351 107194.143524 112790.807392 118448.181254 124595.623451
2025-02-02 84760.974550 92529.344255 100501.965133 109284.989112 118678.205860 128411.893461 139249.796634
2025-02-09 79053.326219 88697.702279 98808.475874 110176.241132 122578.417339 135675.775408 150529.969262
2025-02-16 73953.864191 84931.206046 96648.175065 110048.545789 124912.116360 140855.409283 159211.290155
2025-02-23 70220.395817 82300.927402 95398.632792 110600.386723 127702.690998 146292.199115 167968.502254
2025-03-02 66748.498419 79697.364132 93937.469213 110686.388602 129770.313393 150760.372148 175513.112677
2025-03-09 64505.266231 78316.987824 93700.926641 112011.070494 133110.314623 156560.089378 184488.130750
2025-03-16 61393.035697 75762.854648 91967.992983 111477.841856 134204.347729 159715.613794 190385.988646
2025-03-23 59866.452612 74961.942721 92174.301479 113108.184218 137727.379372 165605.875159 199398.732567
2025-03-30 58114.067557 73798.244805 91872.989342 114070.734990 140415.227834 170496.316862 207243.833593
2025-04-06 56116.044946 72248.340448 91033.371348 114322.554767 142206.952783 174302.122060 213803.843325
2025-04-13 54127.277304 70626.253316 90032.443613 114312.225208 143629.819530 177634.019984 219784.359184
2025-04-20 53301.920076 70422.064990 90748.069522 116394.389985 147604.767316 184059.922680 229543.972490
2025-04-27 52469.008075 70172.555981 91383.903703 118367.938035 151455.402797 190366.345285 239219.842901
2025-05-04 51153.523723 69265.368774 91167.283009 119261.372617 153972.457833 195071.074352 246995.158999
2025-05-11 49410.911235 67755.316688 90147.761482 119112.784120 155175.007413 198166.033561 252822.712291
2025-05-18 48121.412248 66775.929814 89748.707564 119698.336674 157253.553834 202309.470312 259925.156739
2025-05-25 46675.178732 65544.446075 88987.395403 119789.417890 158687.864366 205648.958924 266045.836380
2025-06-01 45908.878318 65168.087129 89287.119812 121201.241221 161761.311486 211004.448650 274661.247191
2025-06-08 44303.134046 63637.857744 88063.761061 120632.879268 162312.560086 213224.126905 279402.772842
2025-06-15 43779.470880 63522.137857 88648.831390 122370.445063 165777.208865 219070.495019 288667.080549
2025-06-22 42980.477199 63009.970029 88695.605191 123396.159888 168328.427947 223781.752925 296539.730407
2025-06-29 41903.499470 62089.427360 88178.561257 123664.487208 169893.237300 227249.790350 302865.456196